“… Ironically, the birth of a child, is recorded as a
reduction in national income per capita, while the
birth of a calf, shows up as an improvement …”
Lord Peter T. Bauer
The UK population is increasing more than its European neighbors. The Office for National Statistics UK, released this information in early August. This is not about increasing the number of children per woman, but children of a generation of “baby boomers” born between the 70s and early 80s, who delayed pregnancy, now resulting in a boom in births. It is the highest birth rate since 1972. This is excellent news for the British economy, although the interpretation of these facts, is divergent between the press, because not all hold good news. But the fact is that increasing population, consumption is also increasing, and consistently. The traditional English newspaper “The Gardian” analyzes this as “a blessing, not a curse”, with these encouraging words:
“People are a good thing, the most precious resource in a rich economy, so the progressive-minded feel. Only misanthropists disagree or dottier Malthusians who send the green-ink tweets deploring any state assistance for child-rearing. So Thursday’s population figures from the Office for National Statistics are unalloyed good news, for young and old, for the economy and wellbeing “
In 2010, I published in my blog, an article advocating precisely the economic benefits of population growth. Was based on a report by Brazilian magazine “Exame”, which was praise precisely the Brazilian population aging. I dispute the arguments of the magazine. Follows the same article translated into English, an approach that is not restricted to the Brazilian case, but is valid for Economy of any country …
MORE CHILDREN FOR THE WORLD
The reader must have already heard or read reviews from environmentalists concerned about the threats to nature, due to a questionable climate change: we can not ignore the problems, even 50 years from now, possibly, all this generation are not more alive. “You have to worry about future generations,” they say.
This concern does not seem to exist with the issue of aging. A magazine article Examination on November 17 this year (Issue 980: “Twenty years to get rich”), speaks with euphoria called “demographic bonus”. Commemorates the fact of having a young population dwindling consumes only against an adult population that consumes and produces.
This relationship may in fact mean an increase of GDP per capita but since there is a steady growth in the economy. This needs to be well explained.
But when a country begins to lose its population (indeed recognized by the magazine itself), problems begin to appear: a huge population of elderly and inactive feature requiring the health and well-being, from the work of an active population each smaller. Many of this generation will live to see it.
This means that the current situation (or bubble), promotes economic growth in the coming years, but – acutely and deadline to finish – There will be growth in certain sectors of economic activity, due to the aging population, such as health care, pension and due to smaller families, couples postpone for years with the coming of the children, we have an increase in activities such as tourism, leisure and personal care, with a growing cult of individuality.
But a calculation transparent, should consider that investments in areas like education, housing, and several others, are not unique to “demographic bonus”, because population growth (with increasing youth population) would be favorable to the growth of GDP advantageously and permanently (or being modern, “sustainable”.)
When families have more children …
The article talks Examination hospital services growing due to an aging population?
– But what about the mothers who go to the doctor when pregnant and when children are born? Consider the growth … pediatric
Leisure and recreation for adults?
– Children love to play more and have more time … …
Travel Packages for adults without children?
– Ask the hotel manager if he would not want the table crowded rooms and full …
Furniture and decoration, building materials, clothing … with large families, as it is necessary to invest! Ask families with 3 or 4 children during growth: how many pairs of shoes, how many shirts and pants, school supplies have to be bought every year ….! In short: how can you ignore that families have more children, the more favors the growth of GDP, and therefore income, employment and tax revenue?
Someone said that children and adolescents prevent the growth of a country, because only consume and not produce? Otherwise: a series of activities for families with children lose ground when children are born into increasingly smaller number
The “game” is fun …
Families decreasing, many trips, houses increasingly comfortable: the benefits that could be obtained over the years, are rapidly acquired, the cost of giving up the children in their first years of marriage. It is the “game” of subprime population.
At a time when the population begins to decrease, we can, if confirmed projections, we are with the GDP and per capita income levels in Europe, but depending on “consumerism” and not “consumption”.
Let me explain: when families have a number of children sufficient to replace both as to increase the population, need to buy more food, more clothes, build more schools, increasing the houses, buy more furniture, more equipment, more school supplies, More Diapers …
This is “consumption”
But if families definitely assimilate the culture of the “one child”, economic growth depend on these families have two or three cars in the garage (a family of three), making “collections” of bags and pairs of shoes, many clothes many trips and meals away from home, one computer for every person in the house …
This is “consumerism”
It is depend on the consumerism of a population aging, indebted and saturated with all kinds of goods, countries like France and Germany, are already encouraging their populations and have more children to increase again … consumption.
Therefore, the projections for GDP growth due to an aging population, should provide some caveats:
1 – This growth has end date;
2 – Depends on consumerism: the financial crisis or consumption, quickly puts the country into recession – Look at the United States and especially Europe today: in crisis and with very low birth rate;
3 – important sectors of the economy, such as real estate and building materials, will suffer sharp fall, with the possible decline in population, with negative effects on the generation of employment and income.
4 – You can achieve this level of wealth with the population growth, more durable and safe;
5 – Reducing the population is difficult to reverse: a decrease of children per couple, generates an individualistic culture. Rich countries face enormous difficulty returning to increase their population.
Yes … rich countries are trying to reverse the decline in the birth rate. This problem does not end here. For many economic aspects, such as cultural and social demographics of the subject will be taken up at other times in this blog